What not to do...
What not to do...
3 lessons from a failed First Minister's short time in office.
As Humza Yousaf departs and John Swinney prepares to jump on a grenade to save a new leader from owning heavy general election losses, what have we learned? Some political leaders exist in the historical memory as teachable examples for future leaders. Poor Humza Yousaf’s legacy is one of lessons in how not to do politics.
Here are three that immediately come to mind.
1. Don’t offer continuity in a time of change.
All politics is about balancing change and continuity. Incumbents have the strategic advantage of being a known quantity but must keep reinventing themselves to avoid being tired. Challengers from opposition find change easy but often have to offer reassurance that the things people like about the status quo will continue.
The SNP lost their referendum in 2014 because they offered change in a moment when voters prioritised continuity. People were anxious about the scale of the irreversible choice they were being asked to make and wanted to be sure they were making the right decision. So as angry as they were about austerity they prioritised security above the opportunity to try something risky but different.
In 2023 Humza Yousaf chose to be the continuity Sturgeon candidate at a time when the bottom was falling out of her government’s reputation. Yousaf may not have been able to predict the potential for the investigation into SNP finances - although journalists at the former First Minister's resignation press conference were. Likewise, it was obvious to everyone else that the party’s failures in managing public services were finally catching up with them.
Perhaps Yousaf felt he was too personally responsible for many of those failures to offer a credible break from the recent past. When he did finally recognise the need for a change in direction his critical eye turned to his coalition partners rather than his own party’s record.
If John Swiney does become party leader again, after a twenty-year gap, it will hardly solve this problem. A year ago he resigned, saying he had been trying to leave frontline politics since 2016 but had stayed on because he wanted to support Nicola Sturgeon. At a time when they desperately need a break from the past a Sturgeon restoration is a gift to their opponents.
2. Policy delivery matters trumps delivery of message.
Commentators often discuss how Yousaf was a less gifted communicator than his predecessors as First Minister. That is true, but it misses a deeper cause of the SNP’s woes. I’ve been thinking of this line from Primary Colors:
"Bullshit'll grease a lot of doors," Stanton said. "The real test is what you do when you walk through 'em. . . .
The SNP are consummate storytellers. Since 2007 they have told a story about how we as a nation, represented exclusively by them, have made more moral, better political choices than them. There are two problems with that story now. First, if you are going to claim to be more moral, then you have to be more moral. That is why images of seized campervans and blue police tents have been so damaging. Second, if you are going to claim superiority, you need to demonstrate superior delivery. But the SNP is now a failing government.
One in six of us are now on NHS waiting lists. Even critically ill patients can wait two hours for an ambulance. Private GP clinics and hospitals are experiencing a boom as public provision isn’t available The attainment gap between richer and poorer kids at Higher level is widening. Places at university for Scottish kids are being slashed as are opportunities to learn at colleges. More than a third of bus routes have disappeared and train fares are up 9% this year. Ferries have become a national joke. The number of potholes reported by drivers and cyclists is up 50%. The police have said they can no longer investigate every crime. Less than 10% of promised green jobs in offshore wind have been delivered.
Little wonder most of us think things are going in the wrong direction. Even the SNP’s own voters are pessimistic:
Myth-making about national superiority fails when people’s lived experience is so often so disappointing.
Herein lies the challenge for whoever becomes First Minister. Governments with a sound reputation on the fundamentals of governing can ditch unpopular policies seen as a distraction. Final-term parties often use a version of a ‘back to basics’ message as they refocus attention on their strengths. It is unclear what the SNP’s strengths now are. Across the board, they have created crises. A focus on the fundamentals will simply invite us to look more closely at their failures.
3. Don’t look like a loser.
The camera never lies. Take a look at the front pages from the last few days.
You know you’re doomed when editors start shouting across the newsroom “I want a gormless photo of him for the splash!” However, long before the crisis that brought him down, it has almost looked like the First Minister’s own press team were working against him. Below are three photo ops organised by Yousaf’s own team.
One can only imagine the weekly planning meeting.
“Boss, your poll ratings are appalling so we thought an image of you in literal freefall would be ideal.”
“First Minister, there’s speculation about your future as leader, so we thought we’d have you pictured hanging on by your fingertips.”
“So, this week your choice for Chief Executive of the SNP was charged with embezzlement so we’ve arranged a photo of you with an actor most famous for playing an anti-corruption police officer.”
Good images can humanise a political leader. A visual style, or even a single photograph, can define an administration. You can’t control the candid moments a snapper captures in pursuit of a particular editorial line, but you can stop handing your opponent’s visual metaphors for your weakness.
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