Should Auld Nationalism be Forgot?
Five reasons to be optimistic about politics in 2025
It has been unusual in recent years, for those of us of an anti-Nationalist persuasion, to look ahead to a new year with enthusiasm.
In the decade following the defeat of separatism at the 2014 referendum, it seemed – even to the most optimistic observer – that the forces of division remained in the ascendency.
But in 2024 that all changed.
Nationalism was resoundingly routed at the ballot box.
The SNP’s once professional political outfit collapsed into a cocktail of scandal and farce.
All of a sudden, a second independence referendum – let alone independence – never felt less likely.
Of course, the SNP has recovered marginally in the polls since those heady July days (although its position remains seriously diminished since Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation).
John Swinney has brought a semblance of professionalism to proceedings after the soap opera of Humza Yousaf’s premiership.
Scottish Labour, following a bungling first six months in office at a UK level, has lost momentum.
The Scottish Conservatives have faced a bruising internal leadership election.
The rise of Reform in Scotland continues – as it does across the country – to cause serious concern.
But, as we mark the start of the new year, here are five reasons to be optimistic that 2025 may deal a further set back to Nationalism:
The Nationalists are on a downward trend electorally…
Given the Labour Party’s dramatic fall in popularity, it is easy to forget just how monumental the SNP’s defeat was at the 2024 General Election. The Nationalists were left with just nine MPs, having entered the campaign with 48. They lost seats in every region and to every party. Their share of the vote fell by 15 percent.
This might be viewed as a snapshot from which the SNP can now recover. But council by-elections since July 4 tell a very different story. The Nationalists have now lost a record 19 local government contests in the last six months. Even a recent SNP victory in Stirling East on December 6 saw the Nationalists continue to lose vote share to the Labour Party. There is no reason to think such trends will not continue over 2025 and, deo volente, into 2026.
…and their party machine is in disarray
The loss of so many MPs – as well as a total drought of donations – has left the SNP’s political operation in a perilous state. In November, the SNP said it would need to cut staff at its headquarters by a third, while its Chief Executive Murray Foote also quit the month before. Such reductions represent a significant brain drain from the once mighty SNP operation, and – with less cash and even less optimism - will prove difficult to replace over the next year.
Independence has vanished
Not only have the Nationalists taken a drubbing at the polls, but they seem to have lost interest in independence too. The absence of any mention of separatism from John Swinney’s Christmas message was just the latest example of the Nationalists running scared of their very raison d’etre – and it is easy to see why.
A second referendum remains wholly unpopular among mainstream voters, while support for independence remains static. This is so much the case that even pro-independence organisations have apparently become disinterested in asking whether people in Scotland want a second referendum; a November poll for pro-independence campaign group We Believe in Scotland ignored the topic entirely.
With public services a mess and growing global insecurity likely in 2025, an issue as distracting and destabilising as independence will only become more unpopular over the next 365 days.
The SNP can no longer hide from its record in government
For the last 10 years or more, the SNP has used alleged austerity by the UK Government as an increasingly indecent fig leaf for its own failings – but no longer. Westminster has now delivered more than £3billion of extra funding to the Scottish Government, rendering arguments about a lack of resource obsolete. Over the next year it will be down to the SNP to explain why – despite the most generous funding settlement in the UK – Scotland still has some of the worst performing public services in the country.
Operation Branchform (and miscellaneous scandals)
Operation Branchform - the police investigation into SNP finances - has rumbled along quietly over 2024, but it must now come to a resolution in 2025. Of chief interest will be the fate of Nicola Sturgeon, who recently said she knew “nothing more” about the investigation 18 months after she was arrested and released without charge.
Meanwhile, Nationalist ministers seem determined to whip up controversy of their own. The use – or should that be misuse? - of ministerial cars is the latest in a long line of issues that have now impacted almost every Scottish Government cabinet portfolio. With the more sensible SNP ministers recognising they are in the last throws of government in 2025, we can expect more such behaviour in the year to come.
Finally… thank you for reading, subscribing and sharing Notes on Nationalism over the last year. It means a great deal.
Happy New Year!