The Inevitable Inevitable
The Inevitable Inevitable
Even 10-years on from the referendum, independence is still "just around the corner"
Ten years on from the independence referendum, and the nationalists are still convinced the break-up of the UK is inevitable.
The current SNP leader John Swinney has boldly dubbed those under the age of 34 in Scotland today as the “independence generation” who make him “very optimistic” secession will happen soon.
One of his predecessors, Nicola Sturgeon, unsurprisingly agreed, writing in the Daily Record this week:
“In all manner of things, progress can sometimes feel glacial until suddenly it is not.
“I believe the same will be true of Scotland’s journey to independence.”
Nationalist belief in the inevitable triumph of their cause is, of course, nothing new.
Ever since polls closed ten years ago this evening, independence has been “just around the corner” – a belief based largely on the premise that as older, pro-UK voters die off, support for Scottish nationalism, which reportedly remains popular among younger voters, will become the majority point of view.
Demand for a second referendum, and separation, will become insatiable.
The problem is that this is not only arrogant, but untrue. If anything, independence has never been further away.
Take, for instance, the desire for a second referendum.
In December 2020 - hardly a high point for the Union - 19 percent of people in Scotland told Savanta they wanted a referendum on independence “next year”.
In 2021, the number of people who wanted a referendum on independence “next year” had fallen to 14 percent.
In July this year, it was still just 15 percent.
Meanwhile, those who reportedly want a referendum in the longer-term (five years or more) is actually going up, from 15 percent in December 2020 to 17 percent in July this year.
You do not have to be Sir John Curtice to recognise that, were independence inevitable as the nationalists suggest, these numbers would be looking very different.
In fact, were independence supporters to have followed the timeline they supported in December 2020, more than half of them would be demanding a referendum “next year” in the polling today – a reality that has simply not been realised.
Equally, were the demographic influence of the fabled “independence generation” growing, it would surely be seen here.
Instead, as we can see, the numbers have remained relatively static. If anything, independence supporters are actually becoming more reticent about another referendum, not less.
What this means is that, far from being inevitable, independence is actually something voters in Scotland - even younger voters in Scotland - care less and less about.
Yes, a decade on from the referendum they might still nominally support independence, but they have a declining interest in actually realising it.
In that respect, while Nicola Sturgeon is right to suggest that glaciers are liable to move slowly, she would be wise to remember they are liable to melt away, too.
The 10-year anniversary of the independence referendum has, as one would expect, generated a lot of commentary.
Those who have followed Notes on Nationalism for many years will be unsurprised that the finest analysis comes from its founder, Blair McDougall, who has also launched a new newsletter, BlairMail.
You can read his first piece and subscribe to the newsletter here:
