After a calamitous week for the UK's institutions, the nationalist cause still can't command a poll lead. Why? And could Labour really be about to recover in Scotland?
Labour polling in Scotland may look good, but without PR nationalists will still win a UK general election. And the independence polling is still not secure enough to ensure remaining, despite poor NHS performance and ferry scandals. What are the arguments that will overturn this?
Labour could convince me if I trusted them on women’s rights. Unfortunately, as with the SNP, they’re too willing to give these to men who think they’re women.
Your analysis of how Labour and the Liberal Democrats might construct a winning non-nationalist argument is basically right. In addition they can offer a positive economic case based on investment to create sustainable and fair growth.
The bulk of the effort would fall to Labour and I must say that I do not think the party has developed a strategy to implement the above. In Scotland there appears to be a reluctance to discuss the true nature of the constitutional issue (Brexit 2 rather than "independence") and at UK level I do not hear the key words investment, sustainability and fairness enough. Many of the "soft nationalist" voters you talked about still think that there is a nationalist magic wand to make the Tories go away for ever.
First of all, it is doubtful that the Tories (who form two thirds of UK governments) would be daft enough to stick with Liz Truss. Ben Wallace has intimated that he is now open to standing, which would sink the wooden Sir Keir, I would suggest.
Secondly, it is known that some 40% of Scottish Labour believe in independence.
How would a referendum go? As this economic crisis mounts, it would be very tight.
Scotland has some very obvious advantages during an energy shortage. One of the reasons British nationalists are desperate to prevent Scots having a say. This added to the lack of Scotland-facing policies from Labour or Tory parties, gives YES a decent chance.
You could be right about Truss/Wallace. You could also be wrong. But the Tories have lost a lot of credibility and won't get it all back even with a change of leader. And they are split either way so more self-inflicted damage is likely.
40% is an over esimate of core independence support. 30% more accurate IMO. And polls which ask about peoples' priorities, the constitution is a low priority. A weak economy is double edged - why take a risk at a time of economic uncertainty? Labour will have the weakness of the economic case for independence to work on (there isn't one that the Nationalists can agree on), and also addressing our real priorities, the economy, health, social care, education, police etc. will attract floating voters.
There is oil in Scottish waters, but it's not Scotland's oil. It is owned by a number of foreign owned corporations who take the profits abroad. And the real problem with oil is the volatility. It brings lots of tax one year and requires subsidy the next.
It's a GE, not a referendum so "Yes" is irrelevant.
If there is another referendum (doubtful) the question won't be Yes/No it will be Remain/Leave, worth a few percentage to Remain.
Labour polling in Scotland may look good, but without PR nationalists will still win a UK general election. And the independence polling is still not secure enough to ensure remaining, despite poor NHS performance and ferry scandals. What are the arguments that will overturn this?
The Nationalists can't win a General Election, they don't put up enough candidates.
Leave UK (as the vote would be) has not had a poll lead for 2 years.
Labour could convince me if I trusted them on women’s rights. Unfortunately, as with the SNP, they’re too willing to give these to men who think they’re women.
Your analysis of how Labour and the Liberal Democrats might construct a winning non-nationalist argument is basically right. In addition they can offer a positive economic case based on investment to create sustainable and fair growth.
The bulk of the effort would fall to Labour and I must say that I do not think the party has developed a strategy to implement the above. In Scotland there appears to be a reluctance to discuss the true nature of the constitutional issue (Brexit 2 rather than "independence") and at UK level I do not hear the key words investment, sustainability and fairness enough. Many of the "soft nationalist" voters you talked about still think that there is a nationalist magic wand to make the Tories go away for ever.
First of all, it is doubtful that the Tories (who form two thirds of UK governments) would be daft enough to stick with Liz Truss. Ben Wallace has intimated that he is now open to standing, which would sink the wooden Sir Keir, I would suggest.
Secondly, it is known that some 40% of Scottish Labour believe in independence.
How would a referendum go? As this economic crisis mounts, it would be very tight.
Scotland has some very obvious advantages during an energy shortage. One of the reasons British nationalists are desperate to prevent Scots having a say. This added to the lack of Scotland-facing policies from Labour or Tory parties, gives YES a decent chance.
You could be right about Truss/Wallace. You could also be wrong. But the Tories have lost a lot of credibility and won't get it all back even with a change of leader. And they are split either way so more self-inflicted damage is likely.
40% is an over esimate of core independence support. 30% more accurate IMO. And polls which ask about peoples' priorities, the constitution is a low priority. A weak economy is double edged - why take a risk at a time of economic uncertainty? Labour will have the weakness of the economic case for independence to work on (there isn't one that the Nationalists can agree on), and also addressing our real priorities, the economy, health, social care, education, police etc. will attract floating voters.
There is oil in Scottish waters, but it's not Scotland's oil. It is owned by a number of foreign owned corporations who take the profits abroad. And the real problem with oil is the volatility. It brings lots of tax one year and requires subsidy the next.
It's a GE, not a referendum so "Yes" is irrelevant.
If there is another referendum (doubtful) the question won't be Yes/No it will be Remain/Leave, worth a few percentage to Remain.