Fighting the last war...

Imagine the consequences if Scotland really is moving into post-constitutional politics.

Gust Avrakotos: There's a little boy and on his fourteenth birthday he gets a horse and everybody in the village says, "How wonderful. The boy got a horse." And the Zen master says, "We'll see." Two years later, the boy falls off the horse, breaks his leg, and everyone in the village says, "How terrible." And the Zen master says, "We'll see." Then, a war breaks out and all the young men have to go off and fight except the boy can't cause his leg is all messed up, and everybody in the village says, "How wonderful…."

Charlie Wilson: Now the Zen master says, "We'll see."

From Charlie Wilson’s War

Redfield and Wilton’s latest Scottish poll got me thinking.

When asked what issues would most determine how they would vote at the forthcoming General Election, only 16% of respondents cited independence/The Union as one of their top three issues. Even among those who voted SNP at the last General Election, the constitution was a top three issue for just a quarter of people.

My initial thought on reading these results was that this is an awful landscape for a nationalist party in this election. When the electorate has deprioritised their defining issue what can they do? The SNP can’t ditch the idea of leaving the UK, so they have to convince people that the policy should be higher up the list of priorities. A strategy based on telling the electorate they are wrong isn’t wise.

Then yesterday I was knocking on doors in an area that was traditionally strong for the Conservatives and another thought occurred.

I have been going door to door in the constituency where I am standing for election since the nineties. Since then, there have been voters labelled as ‘Shy Tories’ - those who intend to vote Conservative but are unwilling to disclose this to canvassers or pollsters for whatever reason. In 2 hours yesterday afternoon, we only found a single voter willing to say they were Conservative. Was this shyness or is something else going on? Certainly, the disastrous leadership of Johnson, Truss and Sunak has given Tory supporters reasons to be sheepish, but I think it’s time to consider whether something else is going on.

In the aftermath of the 2014 referendum, Labour people would lament how the Conservatives gained from that contest while our party only sacrificed. Ruth Davidson used TV debates to demonstrate the formidable and effective communicator that she was. Her party emerged from the referendum with a simple and effective political strategy: The Scottish Conservatives became ‘The No Party’.

In post-referendum Scotland, the Conservatives, like the SNP, had a binary constitutional message that connected with a motivated group of voters. Labour stubbornly attempted to talk about public services, tax, the economy - anything but the constitution - and our vote was devoured by parties more comfortable with the politics of identity.

Even now, as Labour recovers in the polls, some argue that Labour needs to place the constitution at the centre of our offer, to either adopt muscular Unionism or to appease nationalists. However, what if it wasn’t Labour who were being short-sighted over the last decade? What if both the SNP and Conservative strategies were powered by an energy that is dissipating?

For the SNP this risk has been well discussed. The change that they once offered is no longer credible now that momentum has shifted away from them. Labour offers a more immediate change that people know can be delivered as the party cements its strong lead across the UK.

The impact on the Scottish Conservatives of the new landscape has been less discussed. I spend hours every day talking to voters who I know from previous canvass results on our database were attracted to the robust Unionist positioning of Ruth Davidson’s party. Today, on doorstep after doorstep, they describe themselves not as Conservatives but as tactical anti-SNP voters.

Rather than being “Shy Tories” it feels like they are no longer rooted as Conservatives at all.

By establishing themselves as ‘The No Party’, the Scottish Tories over-simplified their personality. Their relationship with voters became one-dimensional.

Sure, some voters remain believers in a small state, traditional social values, and free enterprise, but for a decade the party has not been making the case for those ideological positions. They told Scots that the only thing that matters is being against independence. That makes it easier for those disillusioned with a Conservative government to shift their allegiance, even if only tactically and temporarily, to another pro-Union party. That disillusionment could easily turn into mass desertion.

Perhaps this is only a moment rather than a movement away from identity politics. But as voters prioritise things other than where a border should be drawn, it is Labour that appears to be in the moment.

Everyone said that Labour’s positioning was terrible after the referendum. We’ll see….

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By the way, if you fancy helping out with my campaign, drop me a line!